One's Observations

A collection of some things I observe along the way.


Things That Can't Happen:

  • One of the reasons the Fed was created was to manage the economy and prevent further depressions. Guess What? The biggest deflation in history, the great depression, happened 17 years later.
  • At one time economists thought that inflation and recession could not happen at the same time. It happened anyway. A new term was coined for it “Stagflation”.
  • Deflation supposedly couldn't happen in a fiat regime. Japan proved otherwise.
  • If you asked anyone in Japan if housing prices could fall for 18 straight years, they would have said "It can't happen". It did happen.
  • For 30 years people have said US housing prices would never again decline on a national scale. They were wrong. It happened.
What They Were Saying And When:
  • In 1999-2000 people were saying "The Nasdaq hasn't crashed yet so it's not going to".
  • In 2006 Lereah wrote: Why The Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust. Ironically, it already had.
  • In 2007 many are writing me with reasons why the credit bubble will not bust. It already has. However, just like housing in 2006, the implications have not yet been fully felt.
Read the full blog post by Mike Shedlock.



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