One's Observations

A collection of some things I observe along the way.


"Shortly after the Russian Revolution of 1917, he helped develop the first Soviet Five-Year Plan, for which he analyzed factors that would stimulate Soviet economic growth. In 1926, Kondratieff published his findings in a report entitled, “Long Waves in Economic Life”. Based upon Kondratieff’s conclusions, his report was viewed as a criticism of Joseph Stalin’s stated intentions for the total collectivization of agriculture. Soon after, he was dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in 1928. He was arrested in 1930 and sentenced to the Russian Gulag (prison); his sentence was reviewed in 1938, and he received the death penalty, which it is speculated was carried out that same year. Kondratieff’s major premise was that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of boom and bust ranging between 40-60 years in duration. Kondratieff’s study covered the period 1789 to 1926 and was centered on prices and interest rates."

"Kondratiev waves — also called Supercycles, surges, long waves or K-waves — are described as regular, sinusoidal cycles in the modern (capitalist) world economy. Averaging fifty and ranging from approximately forty to sixty years in length, the cycles consist of alternating periods between high sectoral growth and periods of slower growth. The Kondratieff wave cycle goes through four distinct phases of beneficial inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and deflation (winter)." (North Coast Investment Research Post)


Right-Wing Libertarian said...
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Right-Wing Libertarian said...

This set me wondering. I remember talking about a sort of something like this in college macro class .... uh, long time ago. Got to thinking that a "cycle" is between one and two generations in length ...

Could it be that people my age(ish) are taking such a profound interest in the socialism and liberalism in government because we all "entered the cycle" in the spring and have determined as a (rather large) group that it is now winter? If so, perhaps we are associating "winter" and the hard times it carries with the lib-socialists.

If the cycle is true to form, my child will enjoy an economic "spring" in his elder years, followed by a nice "summer" for my grandchild in her early adulthood thru middle-age. Not such a bad sacrifice if we can get rid of the liberals and their thumb on the scale. ;-) They can still extend the "winter" and shorten the "summer" with their socialist BS ... they STILL need to go.

(comment modified due to terrible grammer error ... more terribler than my usual grammar errors)


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